This is the second economic turmoil I am seeing in my professional life already. First was the .com crash which I was privvy to from close quarters since I was born in that boulevard of broken dreams. I enjoyed the exuberence with limit-less expense accounts and daily festivities, which all got to an abrupt end when people started realizing that it makes no sense to fund Pets.com! But when the party lasted, it felt like there would be no tomorrow. I miss those days! That crisis came from funds which invested in everything from online petfood to online astronomy websites. This second crisis is again started by banks which invested in shady real estate transactions and the subsequent fall of their prices. Credit rating companies, where are thou? How many times have we seen these ratings companies fall flat? Why did they not proactively whistle-blow before all this crap started anyway? Its because those ratings companies work like white elephants in ivory towers.
I grew up wanting to get into banking and dreamt of working for the Goldmans and Lehmans of this world. I ended up doing something totally different and I dont have an iota of interest in banking now but it feels strangely sad to watch the demise of banks that survived railroad bond collapses and great depressions. Pundits say Morgan could be next, AIG could not survive without taxpayers money and Wamu is in death rattle. ML is no more independent and is taken over by a corporate bank. These really are strange times indeed.
My stock investments tanked in India and DJ wiped out close to $1 trillion of wealth in a few days. As Dollar gets stronger to Rupee these days and Oil hitting below $100, we are facing some weird situations in India to what we faced few months back, rising crude and falling dollar. The vicissitudes of life. The smartass analysts give the same reasons for these strange about-turns as they gave for the vice versas. As I read these opinions and analysts reports, I get the same feeling that kept me away from making a career in banking. Analysts know nothing and star analysts are even worse. If their reports come when the market timing is right, they are stars or they fall from grace. When times change and they do in days in these markets, all analysts are wrong so why pay for any analysis anyway? And when banks have trading divisions and corp. advisory (M&A, etc), the Chinese walls usually disappear as Elliot Spitzer knew before his fall from grace. I have stock reports from star analysts that cry BUY BUY and those stock turned out to be damp squibs soon. It baffles me that people actually pay for bunkum. DCF does not hold here brothers! Those approximations sound kewl in class rooms but in real life, seldom do they come true!
But like the wiseguys say, what dont kill us makes us more strong (wrong English but sounds right), I am sure I will be up again as will the US economy and I pray for it. I dont know about you but I strongly believe that since we are so integrated globally, when America does well, we will do well and vice versa. Besides, I just want the US to do well for many other reasons. I hope America gets back on its feet stronger than ever and shows its resilience to the doubting thomasses who are predicting doom. We are down, we rise, we are down and we rise again....
What better! Obama is leading in the polls again..I would be sad to watch a hockey mom with lip stick stand in the way to his astounding run.
My stock investments tanked in India and DJ wiped out close to $1 trillion of wealth in a few days. As Dollar gets stronger to Rupee these days and Oil hitting below $100, we are facing some weird situations in India to what we faced few months back, rising crude and falling dollar. The vicissitudes of life. The smartass analysts give the same reasons for these strange about-turns as they gave for the vice versas. As I read these opinions and analysts reports, I get the same feeling that kept me away from making a career in banking. Analysts know nothing and star analysts are even worse. If their reports come when the market timing is right, they are stars or they fall from grace. When times change and they do in days in these markets, all analysts are wrong so why pay for any analysis anyway? And when banks have trading divisions and corp. advisory (M&A, etc), the Chinese walls usually disappear as Elliot Spitzer knew before his fall from grace. I have stock reports from star analysts that cry BUY BUY and those stock turned out to be damp squibs soon. It baffles me that people actually pay for bunkum. DCF does not hold here brothers! Those approximations sound kewl in class rooms but in real life, seldom do they come true!
But like the wiseguys say, what dont kill us makes us more strong (wrong English but sounds right), I am sure I will be up again as will the US economy and I pray for it. I dont know about you but I strongly believe that since we are so integrated globally, when America does well, we will do well and vice versa. Besides, I just want the US to do well for many other reasons. I hope America gets back on its feet stronger than ever and shows its resilience to the doubting thomasses who are predicting doom. We are down, we rise, we are down and we rise again....
What better! Obama is leading in the polls again..I would be sad to watch a hockey mom with lip stick stand in the way to his astounding run.
1 comment:
i agree with ur opinion on Analysts..thatz true abt the majority of them!...satish
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