I hope we will not hate Google as we do Microsoft (not all, maybe most) now in 2010. But in 2020, chances are the World is going to be so much more connected and Google will play such a huge role in it that it might just become another behemoth creating unintended consequences of dislike.
Take the mobile market now for instance. Only the uninformed would think that the underpinnings of this market are established and that PC will remain what it is today. Just as computing shifted from mainframes to mini to PC to laptops, its gonna shift to mobiles. MS was smart enough to milk the PC OS for decades before paradigms started shifting against it. Windows Mobile is a clunky and idiotic OS masquerading as a 'smart' mobile OS. It was made for a different paradigm and its dead or going to die soon. Google is exactly in the place MS was in late 70 and it knows that. Enter Chrome OS for PC and Android for mobile. A one-two punch to take on both the markets and converge it later as the dust settles. Meanwhile, hardware on mobiles will be commoditized just like PC hardware was in the 80s and 90s. So who makes the hardware of your phone will be irrelevant as long as it runs a hybrid version of Chrome and Android. I dont care if its HP or Dell or Lenovo or Acer as long as the network dictates to me that I buy Windows and I get a nice PC for cheap. I am not loyal to either Dell or HP, sorry. Likewise, future will not care if Nokia or Samsung or someone else makes your hardware but Google wants the winning OS to be Android. But there is a gap. Not all phones are made the same, and that gap is between regular phones (Nokia, Samsung, Sony Ericsson etc) and smart phones (Blackberry, iPhone, Droid etc). Here, the ace in the hole is not Web OS or RIM (although Blackberry is still the numero uno smartphone to beat), its a no-brainer folks, they taught us this in kindergarden, A for Apple.
Apple made its own hardware and OS in the 80s and into 90s and just managed to survive the PC onslaught. It stood alone with its loyal fanbase and the headwind called iTunes changed the course of that company. Just so, in 2010 and beyond, if iPhone can expand its niche to a large enough marketshare, i.e., network, (which it is) its going to be THE company to beat Google (Wonder how many such strategy meetings on the future of mobile computing Eric Schidmt was part of when at Apple board, phew). So Apple is the thorn in the flesh for Google not MS, too bad tech blogs dont even talk much about MS these days not even after the successful W7. I wish Apple made a search engine, it would probably look and work so cool that we might even stop interacting with other humans (thank God, Steve Jobs never thought of a search engine :)
So imagine a website, when you enter with the intention of buying a nice smartphone. You pick what display size you want, the hard disk capacity, memory, and other guts, choose a carrier (hopefully ATT, TMobile, Sprint and Verizon will agree to be on the same page), and finally pick the software that runs these parts together. Google hopes its gonna be Android and it might just be. Commodity hardware, Common software, ring a bell?
But the trump card for now is with Apple, iTunes and App Store. The integration of iTunes/App Store with iPhone is the challenge to beat for Google. But watch how the bargaining power of Google is increasing. Personally, I am writing this free blog provided by Google and if I need to search any damn thing/info on the net, I verb where you all verb. I am thinking of consolidating all my mails into Gmail soon etc etc. Its easy to watch 2010 is when the World is gonna take steps to move to Google Apps. MS Exchange Server makes way to Gmail and its pack of apps. Chrome will be the browser to deliver these apps and Android the OS to run them all, nice picture. So from neat little apps to OS and all the search in between, monopolized in the hands of an erstwhile start-up we all grew up loving and using.
But it scares me that in the next 10 years, if I do update this blog, I dont want to look back and see the graves of future Netscapes, and other innovators with a cold knife in their backs. Ultimately, for innovation to succeed, there should be no such back-biting evil. And Google, did I hear you say "Do Know Evil"? Lets hope the company and its triumvirate leadership is listening.
PS: 2010 will also be the year when I move from Windows OS to Apple tablet, long time coming, i-whatever!
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