Saturday, January 9, 2010
Friday, January 8, 2010
Will Google Be The Next MS?
I hope we will not hate Google as we do Microsoft (not all, maybe most) now in 2010. But in 2020, chances are the World is going to be so much more connected and Google will play such a huge role in it that it might just become another behemoth creating unintended consequences of dislike.
Take the mobile market now for instance. Only the uninformed would think that the underpinnings of this market are established and that PC will remain what it is today. Just as computing shifted from mainframes to mini to PC to laptops, its gonna shift to mobiles. MS was smart enough to milk the PC OS for decades before paradigms started shifting against it. Windows Mobile is a clunky and idiotic OS masquerading as a 'smart' mobile OS. It was made for a different paradigm and its dead or going to die soon. Google is exactly in the place MS was in late 70 and it knows that. Enter Chrome OS for PC and Android for mobile. A one-two punch to take on both the markets and converge it later as the dust settles. Meanwhile, hardware on mobiles will be commoditized just like PC hardware was in the 80s and 90s. So who makes the hardware of your phone will be irrelevant as long as it runs a hybrid version of Chrome and Android. I dont care if its HP or Dell or Lenovo or Acer as long as the network dictates to me that I buy Windows and I get a nice PC for cheap. I am not loyal to either Dell or HP, sorry. Likewise, future will not care if Nokia or Samsung or someone else makes your hardware but Google wants the winning OS to be Android. But there is a gap. Not all phones are made the same, and that gap is between regular phones (Nokia, Samsung, Sony Ericsson etc) and smart phones (Blackberry, iPhone, Droid etc). Here, the ace in the hole is not Web OS or RIM (although Blackberry is still the numero uno smartphone to beat), its a no-brainer folks, they taught us this in kindergarden, A for Apple.
Apple made its own hardware and OS in the 80s and into 90s and just managed to survive the PC onslaught. It stood alone with its loyal fanbase and the headwind called iTunes changed the course of that company. Just so, in 2010 and beyond, if iPhone can expand its niche to a large enough marketshare, i.e., network, (which it is) its going to be THE company to beat Google (Wonder how many such strategy meetings on the future of mobile computing Eric Schidmt was part of when at Apple board, phew). So Apple is the thorn in the flesh for Google not MS, too bad tech blogs dont even talk much about MS these days not even after the successful W7. I wish Apple made a search engine, it would probably look and work so cool that we might even stop interacting with other humans (thank God, Steve Jobs never thought of a search engine :)
So imagine a website, when you enter with the intention of buying a nice smartphone. You pick what display size you want, the hard disk capacity, memory, and other guts, choose a carrier (hopefully ATT, TMobile, Sprint and Verizon will agree to be on the same page), and finally pick the software that runs these parts together. Google hopes its gonna be Android and it might just be. Commodity hardware, Common software, ring a bell?
But the trump card for now is with Apple, iTunes and App Store. The integration of iTunes/App Store with iPhone is the challenge to beat for Google. But watch how the bargaining power of Google is increasing. Personally, I am writing this free blog provided by Google and if I need to search any damn thing/info on the net, I verb where you all verb. I am thinking of consolidating all my mails into Gmail soon etc etc. Its easy to watch 2010 is when the World is gonna take steps to move to Google Apps. MS Exchange Server makes way to Gmail and its pack of apps. Chrome will be the browser to deliver these apps and Android the OS to run them all, nice picture. So from neat little apps to OS and all the search in between, monopolized in the hands of an erstwhile start-up we all grew up loving and using.
But it scares me that in the next 10 years, if I do update this blog, I dont want to look back and see the graves of future Netscapes, and other innovators with a cold knife in their backs. Ultimately, for innovation to succeed, there should be no such back-biting evil. And Google, did I hear you say "Do Know Evil"? Lets hope the company and its triumvirate leadership is listening.
PS: 2010 will also be the year when I move from Windows OS to Apple tablet, long time coming, i-whatever!
Take the mobile market now for instance. Only the uninformed would think that the underpinnings of this market are established and that PC will remain what it is today. Just as computing shifted from mainframes to mini to PC to laptops, its gonna shift to mobiles. MS was smart enough to milk the PC OS for decades before paradigms started shifting against it. Windows Mobile is a clunky and idiotic OS masquerading as a 'smart' mobile OS. It was made for a different paradigm and its dead or going to die soon. Google is exactly in the place MS was in late 70 and it knows that. Enter Chrome OS for PC and Android for mobile. A one-two punch to take on both the markets and converge it later as the dust settles. Meanwhile, hardware on mobiles will be commoditized just like PC hardware was in the 80s and 90s. So who makes the hardware of your phone will be irrelevant as long as it runs a hybrid version of Chrome and Android. I dont care if its HP or Dell or Lenovo or Acer as long as the network dictates to me that I buy Windows and I get a nice PC for cheap. I am not loyal to either Dell or HP, sorry. Likewise, future will not care if Nokia or Samsung or someone else makes your hardware but Google wants the winning OS to be Android. But there is a gap. Not all phones are made the same, and that gap is between regular phones (Nokia, Samsung, Sony Ericsson etc) and smart phones (Blackberry, iPhone, Droid etc). Here, the ace in the hole is not Web OS or RIM (although Blackberry is still the numero uno smartphone to beat), its a no-brainer folks, they taught us this in kindergarden, A for Apple.
Apple made its own hardware and OS in the 80s and into 90s and just managed to survive the PC onslaught. It stood alone with its loyal fanbase and the headwind called iTunes changed the course of that company. Just so, in 2010 and beyond, if iPhone can expand its niche to a large enough marketshare, i.e., network, (which it is) its going to be THE company to beat Google (Wonder how many such strategy meetings on the future of mobile computing Eric Schidmt was part of when at Apple board, phew). So Apple is the thorn in the flesh for Google not MS, too bad tech blogs dont even talk much about MS these days not even after the successful W7. I wish Apple made a search engine, it would probably look and work so cool that we might even stop interacting with other humans (thank God, Steve Jobs never thought of a search engine :)
So imagine a website, when you enter with the intention of buying a nice smartphone. You pick what display size you want, the hard disk capacity, memory, and other guts, choose a carrier (hopefully ATT, TMobile, Sprint and Verizon will agree to be on the same page), and finally pick the software that runs these parts together. Google hopes its gonna be Android and it might just be. Commodity hardware, Common software, ring a bell?
But the trump card for now is with Apple, iTunes and App Store. The integration of iTunes/App Store with iPhone is the challenge to beat for Google. But watch how the bargaining power of Google is increasing. Personally, I am writing this free blog provided by Google and if I need to search any damn thing/info on the net, I verb where you all verb. I am thinking of consolidating all my mails into Gmail soon etc etc. Its easy to watch 2010 is when the World is gonna take steps to move to Google Apps. MS Exchange Server makes way to Gmail and its pack of apps. Chrome will be the browser to deliver these apps and Android the OS to run them all, nice picture. So from neat little apps to OS and all the search in between, monopolized in the hands of an erstwhile start-up we all grew up loving and using.
But it scares me that in the next 10 years, if I do update this blog, I dont want to look back and see the graves of future Netscapes, and other innovators with a cold knife in their backs. Ultimately, for innovation to succeed, there should be no such back-biting evil. And Google, did I hear you say "Do Know Evil"? Lets hope the company and its triumvirate leadership is listening.
PS: 2010 will also be the year when I move from Windows OS to Apple tablet, long time coming, i-whatever!
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Mew @ Mezannine, SF
Mew rocked my world with their incredible live show in Mezannine (terrific sound system), San Fran on the night of 13th December, 2009. I always thought of them as a great studio band until that day, when I understood how superior they are live. All in all, Mew blew me off...
Some great renditions from the setlist:
Some great renditions from the setlist:
- Circuitry of the Wolf
- Chinaberry Tree
- Special
- Zookeeper
- Introducing Palace Players
- Sometimes Life Isn't Easy
- Repeaterbeater
- Beach
- Am I Wry? No
- 156
- Encore: Louise Louisa (Still ringing in my ears after 2 weeks)
Saturday, June 27, 2009
R.I.P Michael Jackson
RIP Michael, the King of Pop and an immortal musical genius (August 29, 1958 – June 25, 2009)
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Fall of the Consumer
When people in Asia looked at the sprawling malls, arrant consumerism and 'various goods that flow like platelets in the blood circulatory system, they felt that this was the way to live. Traditional Asian societies consumed less and saved more from their incomes. They followed the classic linear regression example that consumption should follow income and not the other way round. But in the West, people had other ideas. They binged on $5000 watches and spurge on $500 wines at dinners. There was a thin red line between needs and wants. Such consumer driven growth in the United States seems to have come to a stop or least a long halt for now.
Why blame Wall St., which lives on the principle that "there is a sucker born every minute", for the mess we are in today when people do not understand the reality gap between needs and wants? Why this sudden backlash on bonuses when we knew all along about Agency Problems in Public Limited Companies? Even during the eighties and nineties CEOs of loss-making public companies took stratospheric remunerations. This is not new. Wall St., is not rewarding its Ivy Educated bankers for creating these weapons of mass destruction (CDO and other acronyms that are just deadly financial bets no different to horse races) since yesterday. Its been happening for many decades now. If the consumers on Main Street do not change their appetite for flipping houses and trying to make a quick buck, Wall St., will not change its diet of derivatives. The bankers will always be happy to push down expensive houses to consumers in the shady promise that home equity will keep rising and so does wealth tied to it. The result is people who have nothing to do with this mess are paying the price along with millions of others across the World.
Consumerism as happened in the United States since the baby boom generation has increased consumption unprecedentedly. The mad consumerism in the West drives corporations to lie, cheat and fight without ethics to increase market share. Consequently Wall St., to have great expectations on quarterly performances.
We are all responsible for these draconian times. The fight to understand the culpable parties for this downturn has led to questioning capitalism itself. Adam West famously said that the market will take care of itself cause it knows the best. But the famous Invisible Hand is now pointing its middle finger at us.
Why aren't derivatives recorded on books? How come Hedge Funds are not regulated? They can take their profits with them but we all need to pay for their losses. This recession has given birth to the ultimate debate. Is Capitalism the best way to get more people out of poverty? Is the deadly combination of Capitalism and Democracy the best form of a Republic? Can only Democracy bring justice, harmony and a better quality of life to people? The strains of this recession are felt from the Eastern Bloc in Europe to recently industrialized towns in China, from Peru to Greece.
Since Reagan times there has been deregulation. A democrat like Clinton repealed Glass-Steagal Act. Every one from Adam Smith to Sandy Weil should be blamed for this mess. But mostly, its you and me, the consumer is us who should take the most blame. Flipping house will not create wealth, neither does betting in ludicrous derivatives. Only innovation and new technology can create wealth and lift us out of this mess. Where is the next Google when we need it the most? Until such innovation comes out of the garage and lifts us up, divided we stand but together we fall.
Why blame Wall St., which lives on the principle that "there is a sucker born every minute", for the mess we are in today when people do not understand the reality gap between needs and wants? Why this sudden backlash on bonuses when we knew all along about Agency Problems in Public Limited Companies? Even during the eighties and nineties CEOs of loss-making public companies took stratospheric remunerations. This is not new. Wall St., is not rewarding its Ivy Educated bankers for creating these weapons of mass destruction (CDO and other acronyms that are just deadly financial bets no different to horse races) since yesterday. Its been happening for many decades now. If the consumers on Main Street do not change their appetite for flipping houses and trying to make a quick buck, Wall St., will not change its diet of derivatives. The bankers will always be happy to push down expensive houses to consumers in the shady promise that home equity will keep rising and so does wealth tied to it. The result is people who have nothing to do with this mess are paying the price along with millions of others across the World.
Consumerism as happened in the United States since the baby boom generation has increased consumption unprecedentedly. The mad consumerism in the West drives corporations to lie, cheat and fight without ethics to increase market share. Consequently Wall St., to have great expectations on quarterly performances.
We are all responsible for these draconian times. The fight to understand the culpable parties for this downturn has led to questioning capitalism itself. Adam West famously said that the market will take care of itself cause it knows the best. But the famous Invisible Hand is now pointing its middle finger at us.
Why aren't derivatives recorded on books? How come Hedge Funds are not regulated? They can take their profits with them but we all need to pay for their losses. This recession has given birth to the ultimate debate. Is Capitalism the best way to get more people out of poverty? Is the deadly combination of Capitalism and Democracy the best form of a Republic? Can only Democracy bring justice, harmony and a better quality of life to people? The strains of this recession are felt from the Eastern Bloc in Europe to recently industrialized towns in China, from Peru to Greece.
Since Reagan times there has been deregulation. A democrat like Clinton repealed Glass-Steagal Act. Every one from Adam Smith to Sandy Weil should be blamed for this mess. But mostly, its you and me, the consumer is us who should take the most blame. Flipping house will not create wealth, neither does betting in ludicrous derivatives. Only innovation and new technology can create wealth and lift us out of this mess. Where is the next Google when we need it the most? Until such innovation comes out of the garage and lifts us up, divided we stand but together we fall.
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